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Against the backdrop of the considerable disarray following the American military actions on Venezuela, the apprehension of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “run” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, there is no doubt – this establishes a deeply alarming precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the recent overnight operation marked its premier large-scale offensive on the soil of a South American nation. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.

The move to assault another independent nation and abduct its leader – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – possesses far-reaching consequences. We all have reason to be worried.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has suggested that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and brushed aside conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the decapitated regime are considerably more radical.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who won power promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He does not see the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is transforming it into a rogue state.

He believes that the America's power enables it to do as it wishes with little consequence: witness the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He promises that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this latest episode “will be financially free”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came without UN resolutions of any kind or authorization from lawmakers; Democrats were not even informed and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.

Put aside the implication this carries to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will surely embolden more reckless actions.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

No one buys the excuse that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is motivated by the lure of oil as well as personal bravado, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been shockingly muted. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode emphasizes the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could potentially force him to focus on domestic issues once more – but soaring healthcare premiums, public anxiety over the economy and distracting files make foreign conflicts more appealing.

It has been less than 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may live to repent if they fail to speak up today, considering the potential next target.