🔗 Share this article Moving from Reluctant Admiration to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Maduro. A shock assault against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power announces its intention to govern indefinitely. That is precisely how Vladimir Putin envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York. Official Outrage and Private Thoughts Officially, Russian officials have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of global norms and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Russia once planned, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition. “The operation was carried out competently,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was meant to proceed: fast, decisive and decisive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be engaged in combat for this long.” Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict. Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the American action appeared to be. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote. A Network Unravels For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a network of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of forging a new axis able to challenge Washington. However, even with Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other key allies lose influence or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's reach. “For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with no option but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.” The Ukraine Priority There is also a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with Trump on that issue far outweighs the fate of Caracas. “The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded. Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia. Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025. Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams. “If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Dark Optimism Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than law, determines results. “Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”
A shock assault against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the seizure of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power announces its intention to govern indefinitely. That is precisely how Vladimir Putin envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York. Official Outrage and Private Thoughts Officially, Russian officials have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of global norms and a dangerous precedent. Yet beyond the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Russia once planned, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition. “The operation was carried out competently,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel a popular military blog. “In all probability, this is exactly how our 'military campaign' was meant to proceed: fast, decisive and decisive. It’s hard to believe Russia's top general expected to be engaged in combat for this long.” Such commentary have fueled a atmosphere of introspection among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly conflict. Olga Uskova, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the American action appeared to be. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote. A Network Unravels For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a network of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of forging a new axis able to challenge Washington. However, even with Moscow's top diplomat pledging support for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other key allies lose influence or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's reach. “For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with no option but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.” The Ukraine Priority There is also a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with Trump on that issue far outweighs the fate of Caracas. “The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded. Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a pro-American administration takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia. Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025. Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, threatening one of Russia's key revenue streams. “If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.” A Dark Optimism Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than law, determines results. “Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its country's interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The principle of might makes right is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”