A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
